Tufts or Emory, BU or Northeastern: Four Early Decision Toss-Ups, Read From the Filings

Most students don't pick an Early Decision school from a list of twenty. They pick between two. The two are usually close in reputation, close in selectivity, and close enough in feel that the campus visit didn't settle anything.

Here are four pairs that come up constantly, each laid out the way the colleges report themselves: the early round against everyone else, the SAT range of the first-year class, and what families in two income bands paid on average. In three of the four, the size of the early edge and the price point in opposite directions.

Tufts or Emory

Nearly everything about these two matches: regular-round rates a tenth of a point apart, score ranges ten points apart at the top. The early rounds don't match. Tufts admits its early applicants at 3.8 times the rate of everyone else, Emory at 2.6. In points, that's 24 against 14.

Price runs the other way. Emory has averaged about $9,500 a year less for families in the $75,000–$110,000 band, and about $5,500 less above $110,000.

What tips it: with both regular rounds near 8.5 percent, the regular round is the obstacle at either school, so the size of the early round matters, and Tufts' does more. If Tufts' price for your band is one you'd pay, the filings favor Tufts. If it isn't, the edge is beside the point. Both also run a second binding round in January (Tufts on January 4, Emory on January 1), so the one you pass over in November is still available on a binding basis if the first says no.

Boston University or Northeastern

On the published numbers this pair isn't close. Northeastern's early round is the largest edge in our data, and for the $75,000–$110,000 band it has averaged about $6,300 a year less than BU. Above $110,000 the two are within $200.

The caveat is Northeastern's "everyone else." Northeastern also runs a large Early Action round, and its 3.8 percent is computed over every applicant who didn't apply Early Decision, Early Action included: almost 95,000 people. Part of that 11.2× reflects how many people apply to Northeastern without committing to it. BU's 2.8×, and 20 points, is still a real edge.

What tips it: the score range. From 1440 up you're inside both, and the filings favor Northeastern. Between 1420 and 1440 you're inside BU's range and under Northeastern's, and that changes the read before the multiple does.

Villanova or Boston College

The multiples are nearly identical, which is where most comparisons stop. They shouldn't. Villanova's regular round admits about one applicant in four, so its early round adds 34 points and makes admission the likelier outcome: six in ten early applicants were admitted. Boston College's regular round admits about one in seven. Its early round adds 20 points and still leaves two in three early applicants without a December yes.

Price is the widest gap in these four pairs. For the $75,000–$110,000 band, Boston College has averaged $13,390 a year less than Villanova, about $53,600 over four years. Above $110,000 the two are within about $1,600.

What tips it: for a middle-income family that would be equally happy at either, BC's price, with an early edge that is still real. For a family above $110,000, price drops out and the choice is between Villanova's surer early round and BC's tighter one. Villanova also runs a non-binding Early Action round, and our Villanova piece covers when that is the better door.

Lehigh or Lafayette

Two Lehigh Valley neighbors with nearly the same score range. Both regular rounds already admit more than a quarter of their applicants, so read the points: Lehigh's early round adds 21, Lafayette's adds 12.

For the $75,000–$110,000 band, Lafayette has averaged about $9,600 a year less. Above $110,000 it reverses: Lehigh is about $3,900 a year less, so for those families the edge and the price both point to Lehigh. Lafayette's deadline is also two weeks later, which matters if the supplements aren't finished.

What tips it: in the middle band, $9,600 a year outweighs nine points of early edge for a lot of families. Above $110,000 there is little left to weigh. One more detail from Lehigh's own filing: it is one of two colleges in our data that rate demonstrated interest "important" (which colleges count it), and a binding application is the strongest form of interest there is.

When the edge and the price disagree

A few rules fall out of these four pairs.

1. Check the score range first. If you're inside one college's range and under the other's, that usually settles it before anything else gets a vote.
2. Where both regular rounds are under about 15 percent, weigh the multiple. The early round is doing most of the work at those colleges, as with Tufts and Emory, or BU and Northeastern.
3. Where both are above about 25 percent, weigh the points. You had a real chance in either round, and the question is what extra certainty is worth, as with Lehigh and Lafayette. Mixed pairs, like Villanova and Boston College, need both readings.
4. Treat price as a veto, not a tiebreak. If the average for your band at one of the two isn't payable, the edge doesn't matter.

Two cautions. The filings aren't all from the same year: the Boston College, Northeastern and Lafayette figures are from 2024–25, the rest from 2025–26. And every early pool includes recruited athletes, legacy applicants and others whose files carried something extra, so these rates describe rounds, not you (what our estimate adds).

Where the numbers come from

Early Decision and all-applicant counts are from each college's most recent Common Data Set (sections C21 and C1). SAT ranges and average net price by family income (2023–24) are from the federal College Scorecard. Deadlines are each college's first-round Early Decision date for fall 2027.

Your pair isn't here? Start with the school you're leaning toward: what it published, and your estimate there, are free. The full answer for your whole list is the paid document.