Most of what gets written about Early Decision is about reach schools, where the early round turns a 4 percent chance into a 17 percent one. But a different question comes up every October: should you apply early decision to a safety school, a college that would probably admit you anyway, to be done in December? The filings have something to say about that. At eight colleges in our catalog, the early round admits roughly half of its applicants or more.
The eight
All from each college's 2025–26 Common Data Set. "Everyone else" is every applicant who did not apply Early Decision, including Early Action applicants where a college runs that round.
What the early round buys you here
Two different things, depending on the college.
At Villanova, Santa Clara and Baylor, it buys a lot of certainty: 34, 29 and 28 points. A student who would be a coin flip at Villanova in the regular round is a 60 percent admit in the early one. Those are among the largest point gains in our data, larger than at any Ivy, because there is room for a rate to rise when the starting point is 26 or 47 percent rather than 4. Only four early rounds in our data add more: Fairfield's, Holy Cross's, Tulane's and Northeastern's, which has quirks of its own.
At RIT, it buys almost nothing. The early round admits 73.2 percent and everyone else 71.0. You would be signing a binding agreement for two points. Vermont and American sit between, with a 15-to-19-point gain on top of a regular rate that is already high.
What it costs you
The usual cost of Early Decision is that you cannot compare financial aid offers. At reach schools that mostly means need-based aid. At likely schools it means merit aid, and the same filings show how much is on the table.
In 2025–26, Baylor gave non-need merit awards to 1,374 first-year students, averaging $22,041. RIT gave 756, averaging $41,222. Villanova gave 119, averaging $38,439. American gave 363, averaging $17,232. These are the offers a strong applicant to a likely school tends to receive, and they are exactly the offers you cannot put side by side once you have signed. You may still receive one, as a binding admit, but you will not know what the college across town would have offered.
For a Vermont resident the trade looks different: in-state tuition and fees were $19,058 in 2024–25, so the price locked in is a modest one. For the private colleges at the table, tuition and fees run from $58,000 to $68,000 before any award.
Two cautions in the numbers
Small pools. Vermont's early rate rests on 396 applicants and American's on 392. One more admitted student moves either rate by a quarter of a point; a few dozen fewer applicants next year would move it by several. Treat those two rates as a direction.
The non-binding door. Six of the eight also run Early Action, which gives an early answer without the promise. At RIT, where the early round adds two points, there is no case for choosing the binding door over the non-binding one. At Villanova, where it adds 34, there may be.
A worked case: Villanova
Suppose Villanova is your clear first choice. Its filing says the early round admitted 1,005 of 1,680 applicants, 59.8 percent, against 25.9 percent for everyone else. Applying early more than doubles your chance and moves it from a coin flip you would probably lose to one you would probably win. That is the strongest version of the case for Early Decision at a likely school.
Now the other side of the same filing. Villanova's tuition and fees were $67,776 in 2024–25, and its 119 merit awards averaged $38,439. If your family's plan depends on an award like that, Early Decision asks you to accept whatever Villanova offers without seeing what Fordham, Providence or Loyola would have put on the table. If your family's plan does not depend on it, the lock costs you almost nothing, and the 34 points are yours to take.
The public case runs the other way. William & Mary admits 49.8 percent early. For a Virginia resident the binding price is $25,914 in tuition and fees; for everyone else it is $51,038. Same round, two different bets.
When it is the right call
When all three of these are true: the college is one you would attend over anywhere else on your list; you have run its net price calculator and can live with the number without another offer to compare; and the point gain is large enough to matter, which rules out RIT and arguably Vermont, where the regular round already admits seven in ten.
If any of the three is false, the non-binding early round at the same college gets you the December answer without the lock.
Start with the school you're leaning toward: what it published, and your estimate there, are free. The full answer for your whole list is the paid document.
Results are data-based estimates and do not guarantee admission. This article is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee admission outcomes. All data is based on publicly available information and may not reflect current admissions standards.
Written by the PrepToDone team — data analysis on U.S. federal education datasets (IPEDS · College Scorecard).
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