The Early Decision Boost, Two Ways: A 4× School and a 34-Point School Are Not the Same Deal

Ask how big the early decision advantage is at a college and you will get one of two kinds of answer. Someone will say "Early Decision is four times the regular rate." Someone else will say "the early round is 13 points higher." At Duke, both are true of the same filing, and they lead people to different conclusions. This post lays out twelve colleges both ways and then gives a rule for which lens to use.

Twelve colleges, both ways

Each row is from that college's most recent Common Data Set. "Everyone else" is every applicant who did not apply Early Decision.

Sort the table by multiple and Columbia sits in the top half. Sort it by points and it drops into the bottom half. Villanova is the opposite case. Neither sort is wrong. They answer different questions.

What a multiple measures

A multiple answers: how differently does this college treat its early applicants compared with the rest? At Columbia, 3.5× means the early round admits people at three and a half times the rate of the regular round. That is a statement about the college's process. It matters most when the regular rate is tiny, because the question for a strong applicant at Columbia is not "how many more points" but "is there a round in which this is realistic at all." Going from 4.0 to 14.0 percent is the difference between a lottery and a long shot.

The multiple is also where the known caveat lives. Northeastern's 11.2× is partly an artifact: its "everyone else" includes an enormous Early Action pool, so the regular-round rate is pulled down and the ratio inflated. The multiple is honest about the arithmetic and silent about why.

What points measure

Points answer: how much more likely is admission for the same applicant, in absolute terms? At Villanova, 34 points means a student who would be admitted 26 times out of 100 in the regular round is admitted 60 times out of 100 early. That is a change you can feel. It matters most when the regular rate is already substantial, because that is where there is room for the number to move. There is no way to add 34 points to Columbia's 4.0 percent.

Points are also where small early rounds show their true size. Rice's 1.5× sounds like something; its 4 points, from 7.4 to 11.3 percent, is the most honest description of what the early round does there. RIT's 2 points and Rochester's zero say that at those two colleges the early round is a formality.

The rule

Read the regular-round rate first, then pick the lens.

• Under about 10 percent: read the multiple. The regular round is a lottery; the question is whether the early round is a different game. Dartmouth, Columbia, Duke, Johns Hopkins and Rice belong here, and the multiple separates them: 5.7× at Dartmouth, 1.5× at Rice.
• Over about 25 percent: read the points. You were going to have a real chance anyway; the question is how much surer the early round makes it. Villanova, Santa Clara, RIT and Rochester belong here, and the points separate them: 34 at Villanova, zero at Rochester.
• In between: read both, and notice when they disagree. Tufts (8.5 percent regular) is 3.8× and 24 points, large either way. Wesleyan (14 percent) is 3.1× and 29 points, also large either way. When the two lenses agree, you can stop arguing about which is right.

Using both lenses on your own list

Take two colleges a strong applicant might weigh for the one binding application: Tufts and Johns Hopkins. By multiple, Tufts is 3.8× and Hopkins 2.1×. By points, Tufts is +24 and Hopkins +6. Both lenses say the same thing, and they say it loudly: the early round is worth far more at Tufts. A student who would use Early Decision at Hopkins "because it's harder, so it needs the boost more" has the logic backward. The boost is smaller there.

Now Dartmouth and Columbia. By multiple, 5.7× against 3.5×; by points, +18 against +10. Again both lenses agree, and the early round at Dartmouth does more. Where the lenses disagree, as with Villanova (2.3×, +34) against Columbia (3.5×, +10), the question is simply which you are: a student for whom Columbia's regular round is a lottery, or a student for whom Villanova's regular round is already a coin flip. The regular-round rate tells you which, and the rule above follows from it.

One more thing both numbers hide

Neither lens knows who is in the early pool. Recruited athletes, legacy applicants and students with a clear first choice are concentrated there, and the filing counts them in one line with everyone else. The multiple and the points both describe the round, not an applicant without a hook. The only way to get closer to your own number is to add what the filing says about scores, which is what our estimate does.

Start with the school you're leaning toward: what it published, and your estimate there, are free. The full answer for your whole list is the paid document.